What methods are employed for currency forecasting

The financial market has become popular due to its vitality and  accessibility. But when it comes to trading in different currencies, traders and investors need to grasp the best methods for forecasting currency trading and forex spot rate.

Currency trading forex spot rate is the exchange rate of currencies being traded in the financial markets.

Different methods of currency forecasting

Currency forecasting is essential for determining the forex spot rate in the trading market. Below are the two main methods of currency forecasting:

• Technical analysis: A traditional market like the stock market employs this particular method to determine the currency trends of the future. This method relies on price history to predict the future trends. Technical analysis comprises many different methods, which generally rely on the price movements of the past.

• Fundamental analysis: taking into account different interest rates and economic reports, this method tries to draw its conclusion from numbers. This is a classic way of currency forecasting. It generally revolves around the fact that no matter what happens in the short tem, eventually all investments will have to follow economic numbers.

Apart from the above mentioned methods, traders follow some other techniques for forecasting the exchange rate:

• Time Series Model: As part of the technical analysis process, this model focuses on past behavior and price patterns to determine the trends in future.This model requires data made from price patterns in chronological order

• Relative Economic Strength Approach: According to this approach, a strong economic environment and high growth patterns of a country is likely to attract investors into its market. Hence, this method analyzes the growth patterns of different countries in order to forecast the forex spot rate.

• Econometric Models: This method collects all different factors that the trader thinks are essential for determining the movement of a certain currency. This helps in creating an econometric model that is based on economic theory. But as the economy is based on different variables hence, the trader can add any factor that he thinks will influence the currency rate in the future.

• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Owing to its inclusion in different text books, this method has become very popular in the financial market. This method is based on the principle of theoretical Law of One Price that states that identical goods should have one price per country. Hence, the forex spot rate will change according to the inflation in a particular country.

Relation between currency forecasting and forex spot rate

Determining the forex spot rate (exchange rate) is primary for every trading firm and market. Currency trading is all about future trends and patterns. So, it is imperative for every trader to determine the correct forex spot rate so as to reap profits in the future. If something goes wrong in currency forecasting, it would be difficult for the investor or trader to ensure better returns from the foreign market.

However, the co-relation between forecasting and exchange rate cannot be denoted in theory. There are numbers, figures, models, methods and analysis that determine their relation.

Currency trading and forex spot rate are the two most important pillars of the foreign exchange market. Their correct forecasting will determine correct results and huge profits in the future.