What is Slippage in Forex?

You bought the EUR/USD at 1.4000 and the market is now trading at 1.4025.
Since there is an economic release due out in 15 minutes, you move your protective stop up to 1.4000 to protect your winning trade from turning into a losing trade.  The number is released and the market trades down through your stop level to as low as 1.3975 in a matter of seconds.  But instead of getting filled at your price of 1.4000, you are filled at 1.3990 and now have a losing trade on your hands.

Why? 
The answer is that there was nobody willing to take the other side of the trade at your price.  A trade is when two people agree on price but disagree on value.  One thinks the value is too high and the market should move down while the other thinks the value is too low and the market should move up.

When a major economic number is released, the volume dries up as most big traders stand aside.  They will not trade if they cannot identify their risk.  So there is not as much volume as you would see in a normal market environment.  However, there are still plenty of traders trying to take advantage of the volatility.  They will all want to trade in the direction the market should take based on the number released.

So if everybody thinks that the market is going down, all these traders try to sell at the same time.  The problem is that there are not many traders looking to buy if the market is falling quickly.  So the market continues to fall until the buyers step in and start taking the other side of the trades.  But they are buying at their price, not yours. 
In the example above, a sell stop order becomes a market order once the price designated is printed.  So when the market traded down to your stop level of 1.4000, your order then became a market order.

When you are selling at the market you are matched up with somebody is buying.  If they are only buying below your sell stop price, you will be filled at that level.  This is called slippage and it is present in every market in the world.  This brings us back to why many big traders do not trade in this environment.  So if you are trading in a volatile market environment, you have to be prepared for slippage.  It is the nature of the game.

Forex Stop Hunting - What is it?

You've probably seen it mentioned in various trading forums. It may have even happened to you a few times. It's enough to make your head explode. What is it? It's called Stop Hunting.

Here's a typical trading situation. You're convinced that the USD/JPY is heading up. You've entered a long position at 123.40 and you've set your stop at 123.05, slightly below an obvious double bottom. You set your initial target at 124.50, giving you more than a 3:1 ratio of reward to risk.
Unfortunately, the trade begins to go against you and breaks down through the support. Your stop is hit and you're out of the trade. You're sure glad you had that stop in place! Who knows how far it could drop now that it's broken that support, right?

Wrong. Guess what happens next. You got it...after taking out your stop, the price turns right back around and heads north, just as you originally thought it would. As you watch from the sidelines, the pair moves up past 124.00, then 125.00, and never looks back. Just maddening. You start to think, "If only I had set the stop just a little lower. What lousy luck!" But is this really just a case of bad luck?

Let me relate one of my own recent trading experiences. Based on a statistical trading tool that I use, I went short the AUD/USD at around 0.7530 and placed a stop up at 0.7570 which was above a local top. I was looking for the price to decline to below 0.7300 over the next few weeks. Within a day or so the price spiked up, took out my stop and then moved back down into the consolidation area at around 0.7540.

Now, because of this last spike, there were two local highs on the chart near 0.7570. Not to be deterred from my trade, I re-entered my short position in the 0.7530 area, and this time I put my stop at 0.7580, just above the last spike.
After all, what were the chances that the price would break through that resistance again? Well as it turned out, that's exactly what happened! The price spiked up and hit my stop again, knocking me out of the trade for a second time. And even more frustrating, as soon as my stop was hit, the price turned right back down again in the direction I had originally anticipated!

Ian Fleming's character, Goldfinger, once said,
" Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action." (Play James Bond music here...) "
However, I wasn't actually paranoid enough to think that someone was specifically picking off only my stop orders of course. First of all, my trades were so small that no one would bother trying to pick them off, and secondly I was doing these trades in a practice demo account!
But I bet I wasn't the only dunderhead that was putting my stops in that obvious position just above the recent highs. There were probably quite a few buy-stop orders in that price area, and it certainly looked to me like someone was gunning for those stops. This hypothetical someone may have been a stop hunter.

So what's a stop hunter and what's all this stuff about picking off stop orders? A stop hunter is a market player that attempts to trigger the stop orders of other traders for their own benefit. They generally have the capability to move the market by a small degree for a short period. The stop hunter may be a FOREX broker's dealing desk which is trading in competition with its customers or it may simply be a large player in the market; a bank, a hedge fund or whatever.

Stop hunters operate best in an environment where most traders believe that the market is about to move in a certain direction. As traders take positions, the inexperienced ones (like me in the trade above) will place their stops at obvious places in order to cut losses if the price moves in the other direction.
The stop hunters know where the amateurs are probably placing these stops, so they try to move the market enough to trigger them. This may allow a stop hunter to enter a trade at a good price before the market begins its move in the direction that everyone expects.

For example in my short trade above, there were a lot of indications that the market was headed down. Stop hunters knew that a lot of traders had taken short positions, and had probably positioned their buy-stops up at the 0.7570 area. So why should these savvy stop hunters enter a short position at 0.7530 when so many willing amateurs were willing to buy from them at 0.7570?
So they proceeded to push the price up to 0.7570, and when my buy-stop order was triggered up there, guess who I was buying from? Exactly...the stop hunters who were selling to me at a great price (for them). Now I was out of the market, and they had taken over my short position at a price 40 pips above where I entered it. I had a 40 pip loss, while they entered at a price that was 40 pips better than they otherwise could have.
Then, when the market headed down as we all expected it would, the stop hunters were laughing all the way to the bank while I was sitting on the sidelines pulling out what little hair I have left!

Note that a situation in which everyone expected the market to move up would work in just the opposite fashion. The amateurs would have their sell-stops at some obvious point below the market, and the stop hunters would push the market down in order to trigger those sell-stop orders.
Then the amateurs would be selling out of their long positions in a panic while the stop hunters were buying from them at great prices in expectation of the coming move north.

The type of stop hunting that I've just described is used in situations where most market participants expect the price to move in a certain direction. In this situation, both the savvy stop hunters and the amateurs have the same market opinion; they are not battling each other in a contest of bulls vs. bears. The stop hunters are just trying to take over the positions of the amateurs at a good price.

There is another situation in which stop hunters try to move the market toward a group of stops in the hope that triggering the stops will push the market further in the same direction, thus triggering even more stops and so forth in a snowball effect.
This is how some short term panics and rallies are created. In this case, the stop hunters have taken positions in the opposite direction from the amateurs, and are simply trying to trigger the stops to get the amateurs to panic and keep the ball rolling in that direction. My guess is that this tactic is more prevalent in less liquid markets like stocks and futures as opposed to FOREX.

Keep a Forex Trading Log to Analyze Your Actions

One of the most powerful pieces of information you can use to evaluate your actions as a forex trader is a trading log. With each trade, you should keep track of your thoughts and actions so you can improve your approach to trading. Here are some of the popular entries in a trading log:

1. Date
2. Time
3. Entry price
4. Number of lots opened
5. Initial Protective Stop level
6. Reason for entering into the trade
7. Target price (if any)
8. Exit price
9. Reason for exiting out of the trade
10. Result


After you have logged at least 10 trades, you can go back to compare your thoughts to how the market reacted after your entry.

Some questions to ask yourself include:

1. How did the market trade after I entered into the trade?
2. If the trade was profitable, how far did the market move against me before reversing?
3. If the trade was a loss, how profitable did the trade become before reversing?
4. Where was my protective stop at the beginning of the trade and at the end of the trade?
5. What was the direction of the trend on the daily chart when I opened the trade?
6. If the trade was profitable, how much of the move did I catch?
7. How close was I to the ideal entry point of the move and how could I improve that?
8. Was there a news release or other factor in the move of the market after entry?
9. Could I have managed the trade better?
10. Was my position size good or does it need to be adjusted?

These are of course just some examples. With time, you may need to log more information or ask yourself tougher questions. But analyzing your actions is the best way to see if what you are doing needs to be improved or changed.
Certainly, your account balance from month to month lets you know if what you are doing makes sense, but getting better is the key to successful trading and keeping a log of your actions and thoughts is the best way to be able to accurately analyze your actions as a trader.

Top 5 Most Market Moving Indicators For The USD

When it comes to the currency market, most traders will use either technical or fundamental analysis or a combination of both to formulate their strategy,  However, even for the casual currency trader, news or event risk can have a dramatic influence on the long and short-term price action of a currency pair.

In this report, we examine the 5 most market moving indicators for the US dollar (we update this report annually) against the Euro.  The reason for our focus on the EUR/USD is its status as the most actively traded - and therefore benchmark – currency pair.

Economic Data is Important for Both Fundamental and Technical Traders

It is irrefutable that news or economic data can elicit a sharp reaction from currencies and other financial markets.  However not all economic data is created equal. The monthly Non–farm payrolls for example has had a far bigger impact on the US dollar than other perennial top market movers like consumer prices.  Indicators rarely keep their same level of influence over a currency though; so it common to see major shifts in the top ranking from year to year.

For example, over the past year, the worst contraction in the US housing market in a quarter century has led indicators like new and existing home sales to crowd out top releases from previous years – like ISM manufacturing.  Also, what may create a lasting move in a currency on a day to day basis could be different from what triggers a knee jerk reaction in the US dollar.

The top 5 most market moving indicators for the US dollar on a day to day basis are:

1. Non-Farm Payrolls
2. ISM Non-Manufacturing
3. Personal Spending
4. Inflation (Consumer Price Index)
5. Existing Home Sales

Unlike the other numbers, the non-farm payrolls report consistently topped the list of most market moving indicators for the US dollar.  As the US economy slowed in 2007 and into 2008, the stability of the labor market was closely watched by all traders and analysts because of its broad ramifications for the overall economy.

What’s In Store for the Future

While it seems that day to day news is slowly having a smaller impact on the US dollar, the top market moving indicators will still have their impact on both technical and fundamental trading. The market is highly sensitive to surprise releases from many of the more fundamentally crucial economic releases.
What’s more, the cooler response to scheduled indicators over the longer term will not last. Interest in fundamentals historically goes through peaks and troughs depending on the presence of exogenous event risk. As risk in credit and other markets tempers, market participants will be more willing to take on speculative risk and respond to the ever evolving fundamental docket.

Brokers monitoring your pattern of trade

Do you have any idea as to how much your Broker knows about you and your trading habits? Your Broker will know a lot more about you and your trading habits than you may realize, especially if they run their own Dealing Desk rather than routing your order straight through to the Inter-bank.
A Dealing Desk will be looking to match your Order with another client that is trading the same Pair, but in the opposite direction. That way the trade stays in-house, no Inter-bank commission is paid and your Order never leaves the Broker's door.

At a base level your Broker will not be reviewing each and every trade that comes through the door, but they will be monitoring their internal order flows to ensure that they are in-line with both the Interbank prices, and the next tier down, at the EBS (or Level II).
The decision to route Orders to the market, or not, is Automated and mainly dependent on volume levels, but your pattern of trade will also add to that decision as your account balance grows.

There is nothing untoward about this business model, it is nothing new, after all it is what Dealing Desks are there for; they are replicating the Interbank and Level II for their internal uses, and by collating this kind of data are able to generate internal liquidity.
So long as your fills are reliable it makes no difference where the Order goes, but knowing what is happening at the Broker's Desk may also help in understanding what actually happens on the occasions when your Order does not get filled.

Pattern of Trade
You create a pattern of trade each day that is easy to follow, and with the help of technology is something that is simple to track and report. If for example you regularly trade the same currency, you use the same Lot size, and you tend to hold the trades for set periods of time, your new Order can be reliably swapped with another that is going the opposite way.
Once you have an account balance at a set level, and a set pattern of trade that can be followed, your Orders will not often leave your Broker's doors if they have an active Desk. Your trading footprint can be easily followed and monitored, and there are positives in what your Broker can do with data for you as well in providing liquidity.

Trading Bio
A trading Bio of your habits, your Trends, your Stop areas, your Take Profits, and even the length of time that you are in a trade is a great tool for a Broker to leverage in being able to set the criteria in deciding whether Orders go to the Market or not.
If a Broker needs liquidity in a certain Pair, that may tip their hand in that decision as well. Technology and Automation are revealing more about each trader than most would realize, as the Broker works to get you filled at the prices that you see.

Slippage and Spikes
There is nothing underhand with a 'Broker Big Brother' (BBB), and nothing to worry about so long as your Broker does not have 'unusual' looking price spikes, holds off order fills , or creates slippage on a regular basis.
Spikes, slippage and failed Orders are a reflection of one thing in general; the fact that there are no Interbank Orders on both sides of the quoted prices, there is no conspiracy in the Interbank to manipulate prices, it is just a time and a price point that for whatever reason does not contain Orders. Spikes will occur until a price point is reached that houses Orders, it is the natural flow of the Market.

If your Broker runs a Dealing Desk they will replicate the Interbank, and your trading habits will then form your Broker's Level II, or EBS, data. So as your account balance grows it may be something to be aware of when placing your trades; maybe by splitting your main account into a number of smaller accounts, and if you do not pay a commission per trade maybe look to split one big Order up into a series of smaller Tickets. That way a lack of liquidity will not impact your Order as much.

Big Brother? No doubt about that all. A Problem? Not really, not as long as we understand the natural flow of the Markets, but it is something that we need to be aware of, especially when placing larger trades.

Yours sincerely

TheLFB Team

Gaps in the Forex Market

One of the main differences between a stock market and the FX market is that the FX market is a true 24 hour a day market. Trading is continuous around the clock and really only is closed on weekends due to the lack of volume rather than an actual close.

The result of this is that you very rarely see gaps on the FX related charts. A gap is when the open of one session is far enough away from the previous close to leave an actual gap on the chart. There can be many gaps on stock market related charts since the market stops trading late in the afternoon and will not reopen until early the next morning.

If a company’s earnings are released after the close, the next day’s opening price can be much higher or lower than the previous close. Any news item that causes a shift in the opinion of the value of the market can result in a gap on the chart. In the FX market, you do not see these gaps during the week as the market is open and trading. However, you can see gaps between the Friday closing price and the Sunday open.
Forex Gaps

This week’s trading is a good example as the chart below notes a gap as a result of the G7 meeting over the weekend. You can find more on the G7 meeting at www.dailyfx.com, but the chart shows that the EUR/GBP opened much lower on Sunday than it closed on Friday. When you see a gap on a chart, the first thing traders will look for is for the market to move back to fill the gap.

If the market gaps from 1.2500 up to 1.2525, traders will look for a move back down to 1.2500 to fill that gap and then reevaluate the news and its influence on the trend. We can see where this is exactly what happened last month as the market opened higher than the previous close and eventually moved back down to fill that gap before continuing on with the uptrend.

The gap from this last weekend has not yet been filled and I would suspect that many traders are following this closely to see if that happens once again.

Interest Rates: An Introduction by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York



Interest rates receive a lot of attention in the media, but what are they, anyway? How are they determined? What do they do? This introduction provides some basic answers to these questions.

A. Definitions

What is Interest?

Interest is the price that someone pays for the temporary use of someone else’s funds. To repay a loan, a borrower has to pay interest, as well as the principal, the amount originally borrowed.
Interest is the compensation that someone receives for temporarily giving up the ability to spend money. Without interest, lenders wouldn’t be willing to lend, or to temporarily give up the ability to spend, and savers would be less willing to defer spending.
Interest rates are expressed as percents per year. If the interest rate is 10 percent per year, and you borrow $100 for one year, you have to repay the $100 plus $10 in interest.
Because interest rates are expressed simply as percents per year, we can compare interest rates on different kinds of loans, and even interest rates in different countries that use different currencies (yen, dollar, etc.).

What are "APR" and "APY"?

"APR" stands for "Annual Percentage Rate," and "APY" for "Annual Percentage Yield."
The APR includes, as a percent of the principal, not only the interest that has to be paid on a loan, but also some other costs, particularly "points" on a mortgage loan.
Points (a point equals one percent of the mortgage loan amount) are fees that the mortgage lender charges for making the loan. In a sense, points are prepaid interest, or interest that is due when the loan is taken out.
Some lenders charge lower interest rates but more points than other lenders. The APR therefore provides a useful gauge for comparing the total cost of mortgage loans.
For example, a 30-year mortgage with an interest rate of 8.0% and four points would have an APR of 8.44%, while a mortgage with an interest rate of 8.25% and one point would have an APR of 8.36%.
The principal used in calculating the APR is equal to the amount of the loan the borrower actually has to use at any time. Consider two one-year loans of $1,000, each with an interest rate of 10%, or $100 in interest.
 
6 Months
12 Months
LOAN #1:
$1,000 LOAN 
Repay $1,000
Plus $100 Interest
LOAN #2:
$1,000 LOAN
Repay $500
Plus $50
Interest
Repay $500
Plus $50
Interest

The second loan has a higher APR, even though the amount of interest paid ($100) is the same on both loans. The second loan has a higher APR because the second borrower, unlike the first borrower, does not have the use of the entire $1,000 for the entire year, because the second borrower repaid $500 of the loan after six months. (Another reason the second loan has a higher APR is that the borrower paid half of the interest after six months and half at the end of the year, rather than all the interest at the end of the year.)
"APY" is the effective interest rate from the standpoint of a person receiving interest. If you have $1,000 in each of two bank accounts, each paying the same interest rate, but the interest is credited more often (let’s say, every month, rather than once a year) on one of the accounts, that account will have a higher APY, because the interest will build up more rapidly than on the other account.

Why Does Interest Exist?

From the lender’s point of view:
  • Interest compensates lenders for the effects of inflation, or rising prices. Prices go up every year, so lenders are repaid with dollars that can’t buy as much as the dollars they lent; the lenders must be compensated for that loss of purchasing power
  • Interest also compensates lenders for the risks they take. One risk is that nobody knows for certain how much prices will go up during the time that the borrower has the lender’s money. Other risks are that the borrower won’t repay the loan fully, on time, or at all
  • For a lender such as a bank, interest covers the costs of staying in business, including the cost of processing loans, and interest also provides the profit that a lender needs to stay in business
From the borrower’s point of view:
  • Individuals are willing to pay interest to borrow money in order to be able to spend now, rather than later, on cars and many other items
  • Individuals are willing to pay interest in order to be able to afford a large purchase, such as a home, for which they don’t have enough funds of their own
  • Individuals are willing to pay interest on loans to pay for education, which can increase their earning ability
  • Businesses are willing to pay interest in order to borrow to invest in equipment, buildings, and inventories that will increase their profits
  • Some borrowers are willing to pay interest on certain loans because of the associated tax advantages. Mortgage interest, for example, is tax deductible. That means that in calculating how much income tax you have to pay, you can subtract the mortgage interest that you pay from your income
  • Banks are willing to pay interest on their customers’ deposits because they can lend the funds at higher interest rates and make a profit

Interest: Cost to Some, Income to Others?

Interest is income to people willing to give up the temporary use of their money. When you put money into a bank account, or when you buy a U.S. Savings Bond, for example, you receive interest income.
Interest is a cost to borrowers. You pay interest, for example, if you don’t pay your entire credit card bill at the end of the month, if you take out a mortgage loan to buy a house, or if you own a business that borrows in order to invest in machinery.
Interest is a signal that directs funds to where they can earn the highest rates, or to where loans can do the most for the economy.
Interest is a measure of the cost of holding money. The rate of interest that you could earn by lending your money is the cost to you of holding your money in a way (such as in cash) that doesn’t earn any interest. Economists use the term "opportunity cost" to refer to what you give up by choosing a certain course of action. By holding money, you give up the interest that you could have earned, so the interest rate measures the opportunity cost of holding money.
B. The Level of Interest Rates

What Determines the Overall Level of Interest Rates -- That is, Why are Rates Higher at Some Times Than at Others?
Interest is the price of a loan, so it is determined to a large extent by the supply of, and demand for, credit, or loanable funds. Many different parties contribute to the supply and demand for credit.
  • When you put money into a bank account, you are allowing the bank to lend the funds to someone else. So, through the bank, you are contributing to the supply of credit in the economy
  • When you buy a U.S. Savings Bond, you are lending funds to the U.S. government. Again, you are contributing to the supply of credit
  • On the other hand, when you borrow -- to buy a car, for example, or by keeping a balance on a credit card account -- you are contributing to the demand for credit
  • Individual savers and borrowers aren’t the only ones contributing to the supply of, and the demand for, credit. Business firms and governments in this country, and foreign organizations, too, affect the demand for, and supply of, credit
Together, the actions of all of these participants in the credit market determine how high or low interest rates will be